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Jakarta,  Rokokslot News – Nilai tukar rupiah menguat tajam terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada pekan ini setelah inflasi AS melandai. Namun, penguatan rupiah bukanlah yang terbaik di antara mata uang Asia lainnya.

Merujuk Refinitiv, rupiah ditutup di posisi Rp 15.490/US$1 atau menguat tajam 0,32% pada perdagangan kemarin, Jumat (17/11/2023). Posisi tersebut adalah yang terkuat sepanjang bulan ini.

Dalam sepekan, rupiah menguat 1,29%. Artinya, rupiah sudah menguat selama tiga pekan terakhir atau sepanjang November ini. Hal ini berbanding terbaik dengan di September-Oktober 2023 di mana mata uang Garuda melemah delapan pekan beruntun.

Melesatnya nilai tukar rupiah tak bisa dilepaskan dari data inflasi AS. Inflasi AS yang melandai membuat pelaku pasar berekspektasi bank sentral AS The Federal Reserve (The Fed) akan segera mengakhiri tren kenaikan suku bunga sehingga banyak investor yang menjual dolar AS dan membawa dananya ke Emerging Markets, seperti Indonesia. Kondisi ini membuat capital inflow mengalir deras.

Seperti diketahui, inflasi AS melandai ke 3,2% (year on year/yoy) pada Oktober 2023, dari 3,7% (yoy) pada September 2023.
Melandainya inflasi diikuti dengan melemahnay sejumlah indikator ekonomi lainnya mulai dari indeks harga produsen (PPI), penjualan ritel, hingga naikya klaim pengangguran.
Indeks harga produsen AS terkontraksi 0,5% (month to month/mtm) pada Oktober 2023. Kontraksi ini adalah yang pertama sejak Mei dan terbesar sejak April 2020.

Secara tahunan (yoy), harga produsen naik 1,3% dari Oktober 2022, melandai dari 2,2% pada September 2023 dan menjadi kenaikan terkecil sejak Juli.

Data penjualan ritel AS juga menunjukkan tren pelemahan. Secara bulanan (mtm), penjualan ritel AS terkontraksi 0,1% pada Oktober 2023, menjadi kontraksi pertama dalam tujuh bulan terakhir.

Secara tahunan, penjualan ritel juga melandai menjadi 2,5% pada Oktober 2023, terendah dalam empat bulan terakhir.

Pengajuan tunjangan pengangguran naik 13.000 menjadi 231.000 untuk pekan yang berakhir 11 November, Departemen Tenaga Kerja melaporkan pada hari Rabu waktu Indonesia. Angka tersebut merupakan tertinggi dalam tiga bulan.

Data-data tersebut semakin menegaskan jika inflasi AS memang sudah mendingin sehingga membawa harapan bank sentral AS The Federal Reserve (The Fed) akan segera melunak.

Perangkat CME FedWatch tool menunjukkan 100% pelaku pasar melihat The Fed masih akan menahan suku bunga pada Desember mendatang. Artinya, hingga akhir tahun suku bunga masih berada di level 5,25-5,50%.

Ekspektasi ini membuat dolar AS terperosok. Indeks jatuh ke 103,92 pada perdagangan kemarin. Posisi tersebut adalah yang terendah sejak akhir Agustus atau 2,5 bulan terakhir.

Ekspektasi tersebut juga membuat investor menarik investasi dalam denominasi dolar dan mengalihkannya ke Emerging Markets, termasuk Indonesia.

Berdasarkan data Bank Indonesia (BI)berdasarkan transaksi 13-16 November, investor asing mencatat net buy sebesar Rp 7,33 triliun rupiah dengan rincian net buy sebesar Rp 2,49 triliun di pasar Surat Berharga Negara (SBN) dan Rp 0,87 triliun di pasar saham serta sebesar Rp 3,97 triliun di Sekuritas Rupiah BI (SRBI).

Catatan net buy berbanding terbalik dengan pekan sebelumnya di mana investor asing masih mencatat net sell sebesar Rp 1,27 triliun.
Catatan net buy sebesar Rp 7,33 triliun pada pekan ini adalah yang tertinggi sejak pekan pertama Mei 2023 atau lebih dari enam bulan terakhir.

Pesta pora tidak hanya dirayakan rupiah. Mayoritas mata uang Asia juga menguat tajam bahkan lebih tinggi dibandingkan mata uang Garuda. Penguatan tajam ditorehkan baht Thailand yang melambung 2,31% disusul kemudian dengan won Korea yang melesat 1,71%.

418 thoughts on “Banjir Dana Asing Di Mana-Mana! Rupiah Perkasa Hajar Dolar”
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